Premier League Betting Guide – From Beginner To Pro
Premier League betting guide 2022-23: facts, stats, strategies, betting offers, tips, best prices, advice & more
The Premier League is the most famous football league on the planet, and the richest… Hence why there are so many betting opportunities up for grabs at a very good price! Our English top-flight betting guide will cover the essential bits you need to know in order to increase your chances of being successful.
We’ll let you in on a few interesting Premier League betting facts. Then we’re going to teach you what and where to look for when analysing football matches. Next, we’re inviting you to grasp the fundamental concept of value betting, and in the end we’re going to present the best betting offers that are available for UK punters in 2023 and the top prices for some Premier League outright markets.
Quickly navigate to your desired topic:
- Premier League Betting Facts
- Premier League Betting Stats
- How To Bet On The Premier League And Win
- Premier League Betting Offers 2022/23
- Premier League Betting Prices
Premier League 2021-22 Betting Facts
Here are some thought-provoking facts about the previous Premier League season:
1
Mohammed Salah and Son Heung-min had to share the Golden Boot award, both players scoring 23 goals last season. Ederson and Alisson Becker, the two Brazilian goalkeepers from Manchester City and Liverpool, had to share the Golden Glove, after they each managed to keep 20 clean sheets.
2
78% of Newcastle’s points came in the second half of the season, with only Liverpool (51) and Manchester City (46) winning more in their final 19 games of 2021-22.
3
Liverpool (20.68) and Manchester City (19.10) amassed the highest expected goal totals from non-penalty set play shots in the EPL last season.
4
Chelsea broke a new Premier League record by becoming the first side in the competition's history not to lose a match at half-time within a season.
5
For only the third Premier League season ever, no outfield player managed to play every single minute of the campaign – the other seasons were in 2005-06 and 1997-98. Still, goalkeepers Hugo Lloris and David de Gea were the only two players to play every minute of the EPL season.
6
Manchester United (44.22) allowed their opponents a higher expected goal total from open play than 16th place Everton (42.57) in the 2021-22 EPL campaign.
7
Only Ligue 1 champions Paris Saint-Germain (5.4) averaged a higher number of open play passes per sequence in the top five European football leagues in 2021-22 than EPL winners Manchester City (5.3).
8
In 2021-22, Watford was the second worst home team in a Premier League season. The Hornets’ eight points won at Vicarage Road is only better than one team in EPL history – Sunderland’s paltry seven points at the Stadium of Light in 2005-06 (W1 D4 L14), while they equalled Derby County’s eight from their dreadful 2007-08 campaign.
9
Norwich City (9,487) handed more Premier League minutes to players aged 21 years old and younger last season than Arsenal (7,898), but the Gunners led the way for both goals (27) and assists (16) from players in this age range.
10
Leicester City may have finished in a respectable eighth position in 2021-22, but they'll be looking to become more solid defensively from set plays next season, as they allowed the highest (19.97) non-penalty total from set pieces in the Premier League.
Premier League Betting Stats
Everybody knows they can find the English Premier League table by just googling it. Then again, there are plenty of websites that provide free football stats. This is both good and bad. Football betting stats are mandatory for every decent betting model, yet sports bettors tend to make long lists instead of a proper shortlist. So we’ve devised one for you hoping that you could start to build your England Premier League prediction model based on it:
1) WhoScored.com
This is one of the most helpful if not the best football betting stats website on the planet. Basically, if you’d only be allowed to visit one website when analysing football matches, this should be your pick, because we rate it as the number one (free) go-to resource.
WhoScored.com’s Premier League section provides an incredible amount of useful data, such as in-depth team stats, player stats and referee stats. At first glance, you can find fantastic info about form, streaks, progress, and you can even set custom date ranges to generate custom views. If you want even more specific data, you can browse several averages, like aerial duels won, goal contribution, shots per game, average ratings (based on some incredibly clever algorithms) and so on. On top of that, you get to see the Premier League Best XI and a few betting-oriented match facts.
Things to look for on WhoScored.com:
- Team Statistics – team characteristics (strengths and weaknesses), style of play, situational statistics (goal types, pass types, card situations), positional statistics (preferred attack sides, shot directions, shot zones, action zones)
- Players Statistics – height, weight, apps, minutes played, assists, bookings, defensive, offensive and passing metrics and averages
- Referee Statistics – apps, fouls, fouls/tackle, penalties, yellow cards, red cards etc.
- Advanced League Table – standings, form, streaks, full season progress, possession, aggression, aerial duels won, shots per game, passing accuracy, average ratings
- Premier League Best XI – weekly, monthly and seasonal views (useful for fantasy Premier League betting fans)
- Probable Lineups – formations, lineups (probable and announced), stats comparison, missing players, team news, match facts
- Match Reports – summary, strengths, weaknesses, situational reports, positional reports & conclusions on settled matches.
Despite showing all those valuable stats, metrics and info on the Premier League and other top football competitions such as the Champions League or the Europa League, WhoScored.com’s “Betting” section isn’t as great as you’d expect. There are a few goal-scoring stats, halftime/fulltime data, man of the match users predictions, correct score probabilities, three-way votes and more, but these aren’t the things you should pay the most attention to.
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2) Transfermarkt.com
Transfermarkt has grown from being a football transfers database to a comprehensive football data portal. You can find out many useful things about players, staff members and referees at a glance. The amount of data that’s available and the way it is presented makes this website a necessity for most punters.
You might not be immediately impressed when accessing the English Premier League section on TransferMarkt.co.uk, but as soon as you realise that almost everything’s clickable and you start browsing around you’ll undoubtedly be surprised.
Things to look for on TransferMarkt.co.uk:
- Market Values, Contracts, Future Transfers, Rumours
- Squad Composition According To Positions – useful to compare the options that are available to managers before a match, especially when the squad faces injuries or suspensions
- Team Stats & Player Performance Data – intuitive overviews for team stats and various views of individual player performance which can be filtered by competition, club, manager & more
- Matchday & Table – a great feature that allows you to see the Premier League table history – e. like seeing how the table looked like after the first 15 games.
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3) OddsPortal.com
Some sports bettors use OddsPortal.com to monitor dropping odds and to find sure bets, others to compare odds (both live and pre-match) and others to discover value bets. There are even panels that show you the latest moving margins in handicap bets and totals bets, blocked odds, hot matches and community predictions, amongst others.
All in all, there are plenty of reasons for punters to visit this excellent resource regularly, but we’re going to focus on the Premier League area on OddsPortal.com for the purpose of this guide.
Things to look for on OddsPortal.com:
- Pre-Match & In-Play Odds Comparison – if you register you’ll be able to customise views and set the preferred online bookmakers
- Premier League Results & Historical Odds – check out the betting odds that were on offer for every fixture since the 2003/2004 Premier League season
- Form Table – quickly check out how the teams performed during the past 5, 10, 15, 20 etc. matches
- Odds Movement – see the opening odds and real-time odds fluctuations on several bet types: 1X2, Under/Over, Draw No Bet, Asian Handicaps, 1st Half & 2nd Half, Both Teams To Score, Half Time / Full Time, Outright markets etc.
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Premier League Betting Strategy
Although most astute bettors indeed avoid the top-flight leagues in world football, we must admit that some online bookies offer incredible payouts of up to 98% for the main betting markets on the Premier League. That happens because the EPL is the most bet on sports league in Europe.
Its popularity generates an efficient betting market, meaning that the odds adjusted by the wagers often reflect actual probabilities, so finding value can be tricky. Still, there are several things you can do to improve your chances of landing a profit at the end of the season:
Develop a betting model that reveals the value
Most weekend bettors believe that there’s only one scenario and one result that they have to guess when analysing a fixture in order to win. That’s not the way you should think if you want to increase your chances of succeeding because there are literally thousands of possibilities.
The thing you should do is to establish the likelihood of certain results to take place and get better at it. Of course, finding value is challenging, and no betting guide can tell you exactly how to identify over-priced odds – although there are a few general guidelines on every sports betting site.
An excellent way to start is to price up your predictions before checking out the odds on offer and to develop a habit only to wager at odds that provide, say 5% value (check out our betting guide about calculating value).
There’s only one way you can beat the collective wisdom of the crowd, and that’s being one step ahead of the hundreds of thousands of bettors out there. Something you can do differently to everybody else is to pay a lot of attention to the team news that could potentially be undervalued or on the contrary, given too much significance. You can do that by browsing popular Premier League betting tips, social media, the media etc.
Your football prediction model should include something more than just numbers. In other words, if you can identify the hype, use it to your advantage. Anything that’s not measurable will give you an edge. This doesn’t mean you should neglect the betting stats analysis; just remember not to stop there.
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Apply a safe & stable staking method
First things first: Only bet what you can afford to lose, don’t increase your stakes unless your strategy demands it and never chase losses.
Second, let go of the need to make things interesting, forget about the adrenaline rush and bet no more than 2% of your initial bank on each selection.
“Whaaaaaat?” I hear you inquiring.
It doesn’t matter if your bankroll is only £50. Applying a sound money management strategy is the least you can do to give yourself a chance to make a buck at the end of the season. Employing this staking method is incredibly easy, yet many weekend punters ignore it, whereas most pros use it.
The reason why this simple staking plan is so good is that it:
- cancels bad luck in the long run
- protects your betting bankroll
- will help you make the most of the value you have identified.
No matter how good of a tipster you are, things will go pear shapes from time to time. Basically, you are eliminating an aspect most punters have to worry about by employing a fixed stake. And the great news is that this will enable you to better focus on other aspects of your betting analysis.
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Follow Premier League clubs, players and communities
Knowing the Premier League winners of the last two decades won’t help you better understand football betting markets. However, it is vital that you study everything there is to know about the EPL. Why? Because correctly evaluating the pros and cons you have at your disposal is what separates the average bettors from the seasoned punters.
You don’t have the cutting edge analysis tools bookies use to establish odds, but you do have access to their final product: the betting odds. What you can do is to try and incorporate personal information that comes from other people.
Start by reading the online newspapers, check out what the media punters say, find out what other sports bettors think, follow the clubs, players, fan clubs and other communities on social media and try to interpret data coming from various relevant viewpoints.
You want to listen and weigh both the pros and the cons. Don’t look only for the opinions that are lying in the same boat; otherwise you’d cheat yourself into believing a random guess. Take notes of over-hyped arguments, but don’t fall for the public opinion. Always do your due diligence.
And remember that despite the comprehensive media coverage, the social media and the global interest for the competition, it is not easy to make money betting on the Premier League. A half an hour of analysis won’t be enough. You have to work a few days in advance to be able to generate accurate predictions, and even if you do, there’s no guarantee that you will succeed.
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Find the best price for your selections
The vigorish, juice or cute of the take makes it impossible for a punter to profit in the long run unless he has accounts with multiple bookies. The payout that is generally available won’t be good enough to enable long term success unless the punter happens to be involved in match-fixing.
Unless you’ve got an efficient Premier League betting model that enables you to determine the real probability accurately, you can always base your decisions on the liquidity available on Betfair (or any other betting exchange). The Premier League is the most bet football league in Europe, so the odds on Matchbook are the result of plenty sophisticated pricing models that are shaping the market in their attempt to grab valuable prices.
As a general rule of thumb, back at the higher odds with the bookies than it is available at the betting exchanges and you should be on the right side. Now, that’s an ideal scenario, but typically what you should look for is to take the top price on your chosen selection. You can use resources such as OddsPortal.com to do that efficiently.
Premier League Betting Offers 2022/2023
There are tons of betting offers for all customers, existing and new, with regards to Premier League betting. But betting on the English top tier isn’t beneficial to the punter only because of free bets and betting offers for new accounts.
Premier League games come with the most betting markets, with some betting sites offering as many as +250 betting lines. On top of that, many online bookmakers run slim margins for the EPL markets, resulting in high payouts for the punters, up to an incredible 98% on the main 1X2 moneyline bets.
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Premier League Betting Prices
We’ve added some betting odds for the outright betting fans: Title Odds, PFA Player of the Year Odds, Premier League Top Scorer Odds & Relegation Odds for the 2022-2023 season. However, the betting odds will be continuously adjusted by the online bookmakers according to the results, transfers, staff changes and other team news. Note that our tipsters add Premier League Betting Predictions from time to time in our Free Betting Tips section.
Premiership Winner Odds 2022-2023
- Arsenal @ 1.73 – bet365.com
- Man City @ 2.25 – bet365.com
- Man Utd @ 41 – bet365.com
- Newcastle@ 81 – bet365.com
- Liverpool @ 251 – bet365.com
Odds correct as of 11:03 01/02/2023
Premier League Player Of The Year Odds 2022-2023
- Erling Haaland @ 1.57 – bet365.com
- Martin Odegaard @ 4.50 – williamhill.com
- Bukayo Saka @ 13 – bet365.com
- Kevin De Bruyne @ 15 – bet365.com
- Marcus Rashford @ 17 – bet365.com
- Kieran Trippier @ 26 – bet365.com
- Casemiro @ 26 – bet365.com
Odds correct as of 11:03 01/02/2023
Premier League Top Scorer Odds 2022-2023
- ⚽ Erling Haaland @ 1.05 – bet365.com
- ⚽ Harry Kane @ 15 – bet365.com
- ⚽ Marcus Rashford @ 67 – bet365.com
- ⚽ Ivan Toney @ 81 – bet365.com
- ⚽ Aleksandar Mitrovic @ 101 – bet365.com
Odds correct as of 11:03 01/02/2023
English Premiership Relegation Odds 2022-2023
- Bournemouth @ 1.33 – bet365.com
- Everton @ 1.53 – bet365.com
- Southampton @ 1.67 – bet365.com
- Wolves @ 3.40 – bet365.com
- Nottingham Forest @ 3.50 – bet365.com
- Leicester @ 4.33 – bet365.com
- Leeds @ 4.50 – bet365.com
- West Ham @ 7.00 – bet365.com
Odds correct as of 11:03 01/02/2023