Premier League Betting Guide – From Beginner To Pro

Premier League betting guide 18/19: facts, stats, strategies, betting offers, tips, best prices, advice & more

The Premier League is the most famous football league on the planet, and the richest… Hence why there are so many betting opportunities up for grabs at a very good price! Our English top flight betting guide will cover the essential bits you need to know in order to win your bets.

We’ll let you in on a few interesting Premier League betting facts, then we’re going to teach you what and where to look for when analysing football matches. Next, we’re inviting you to grasp the fundamental concept of value betting and at the end we’re going to present the best betting offers that are available for UK punters in 2019 and the top prices for some Premier League outright markets.

Quickly navigate to your desired topic:

  1. Premier League Betting Facts
  2. Premier League Betting Stats
  3. How To Bet On The Premier League And Win
  4. Premier League Betting Offers 18/19
  5. Premier League Betting Prices

 

Premier League Betting Facts

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Here are some thought-provoking facts about the preceding Premier League seasons:

Did you know that 45% of the Premier League matches played during the past 5 seasons (2013-2018) ended up with the home team winning? 30% of the matches were won by the visiting teams and just 24% ended up with a tie during the same period.

Believe it or not, both teams managed to score in 50% of the English Premier League matches played during the precedent 5 seasons. The Over 2.5 goals bet could have been won on 52% of the occasions in that same interval, where the average goal per match ratio was 2.7 and no less than 58% of the goals were netted in the second half.

Just in case you were wondering, the most common scores recorded in-between the 2013-2014 and 2017-2018 Premier League seasons were 1-0 wins and 1-1 ties.

1-0 and 1-1 were the most common scores recorded during the past 5 Premier League seasons: Click To Tweet

Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have each won three Premier League titles during the past decade, with Leicester City being the only outsider to claim the most prestigious club football title on the planet in 2016 after a fairy tale season.

Only 5 of the last 15 teams promoted in the English top tier have relegated immediately and that’s why betting on Premier League relegation can be tricky to say the least. In fact, none of the three teams that were promoted last season went down at the end of the 2017/2018 campaign.

 

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Premier League Betting Stats

Everybody knows they can find the English Premier League table by just googling it. Then again, there are plenty of websites that provide free football stats. This is both good and bad. Football betting stats are mandatory for every decent betting model, yet sports bettors tend to make long lists instead of a proper shortlist. So we’ve devised one for you hoping that you could start to build your England Premier League prediction model based on it:

1) WhoScored.com

WhoScored.com Premier League Stats

This is one of the most helpful if not the best football betting stats website on the planet. Basically, if you’d only be allowed to visit one website when analysing football matches, this should be your pick, because we rate it as the number one (free) go-to resource.

WhoScored.com’s Premier League section provides an incredible amount of useful data, such as in-depth team stats, player stats and referee stats. At first glance you can find amazing info about form, streaks, progress and you can even set custom date ranges to generate custom views. If you want even more specific data you can browse several averages, like aerial duels won, goal contribution, shots per game, average ratings (based on some incredibly clever algorithms) and so on. On top of that, you get to see the Premier League Best XI and a few betting-oriented match facts.

Things to look for on WhoScored.com:

  • Team Statistics – team characteristics (strengths and weaknesses), style of play, situational statistics (goal types, pass types, card situations), positional statistics (preferred attack sides, shot directions, shot zones, action zones)
  • Players Statistics – height, weight, apps, minutes played, assists, bookings, defensive, offensive and passing metrics and averages
  • Referee Statistics – apps, fouls, fouls/tackle, penalties, yellow cards, red cards etc.
  • Advanced League Table – standings, form, streaks, full season progress, possession, aggression, aerial duels won, shots per game, passing accuracy, average ratings
  • Premier League Best XI – weekly, monthly and seasonal views (useful for fantasy Premier League betting fans)
  • Probable Lineups – formations, lineups (probable and announced), stats comparison, missing players, team news, match facts
  • Match Reports – summary, strengths, weaknesses, situational reports, positional reports & conclusions on settled matches.

Despite showing all those valuable stats, metrics and info on the Premier League and other top football competitions such as the Champions League or the Europa League, WhoScored.com’s “Betting” section isn’t as great as you’d expect. There are a few goal scoring stats, halftime/fulltime data, man of the match users predictions, correct score probabilities, three-way votes and more, but these aren’t the things you should pay the most attention to.

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2) Transfermarkt.com

Transfermarkt.com Premier League Squad Composition According To Position

Transfermarkt has grown from being a football transfers database to a comprehensive football data portal. You can find out many useful things about players, staff members and referees at a glance. The amount of data that’s available and the way it is presented makes this website a necessity for most punters.

You might not be impressed immediately when accessing the English Premier League section on TransferMarkt.co.uk, but as soon as you realise that almost everything’s clickable and you start browsing around you’ll certainly be surprised.

Things to look for on TransferMarkt.co.uk:

  • Market Values, Contracts, Future Transfers, Rumours
  • Squad Composition According To Positions – useful to compare the options that are available to managers before a match, especially when the squad faces injuries or suspensions
  • Team Stats & Player Performance Data – intuitive overviews for team stats and various views of individual player performance which can be filtered by competition, club, manager & more
  • Matchday & Table – a great feature that allows you to see the Premier League table history – e. like seeing how the table looked like after the first 15 games.

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3) OddsPortal.com

OddsPortal.com Premier League Pre-Match & In-Play Odds Comparison

Some sports bettors use OddsPortal.com to monitor dropping odds and to find sure bets, others to compare odds (both live and pre-match) and others to discover value bets. There are even panels that show you the latest moving margins in handicap bets and totals bets, blocked odds, hot matches and community predictions, amongst others.

All in all, there are plenty reasons for punters to visit this awesome resource on a regular basis, but we’re going to focus on the Premier League area on OddsPortal.com for the purpose of this guide.

Things to look for on OddsPortal.com:

  • Pre-Match & In-Play Odds Comparison – if you register on the website you’ll be able to customise views and set the preferred online bookmakers
  • Premier League Results & Historical Odds – check out the betting odds that were on offer for every fixture since the 2003/2004 Premier League season
  • Form Table – quickly check out how the teams performed during the past 5, 10, 15, 20 etc. matches
  • Odds Movement – see the opening odds and real-time odds fluctuations on several bet types: 1X2, Under/Over, Draw No Bet, Asian Handicaps, 1st Half & 2nd Half, Both Teams To Score, Half Time / Full Time, Outright markets etc.

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How To Bet On The Premier League And Win

How To Bet On The Premier League And Win

Although it is true that most astute bettors avoid the top-flight leagues in world football, we must admit that some online bookies offer incredible payouts of up to 98% for the main betting markets on the Premier League. That happens because the EPL is the most bet on sports league in Europe.

Its popularity generates an efficient betting market, meaning that the odds adjusted by the wagers often reflect true probabilities, so finding value can be tricky. Still, there are a number of things you can do to improve your chances of landing a profit at the end of the season:

Develop a betting model that reveals value

Most weekend bettors believe that there’s only one scenario and one result that they have to guess when analysing a fixture in order to win. That’s really not the way you should think if you really want to have the chance to win, because there are literally thousands of possibilities.

The thing you should do is to establish the likelihood of certain results to take place and get better at it. Of course, finding value is challenging and no betting guide can tell you exactly how to identify over-priced odds – although there are a few general guidelines on every sports betting site.

A good way to start is to price up your predictions before checking out the odds on offer and to develop a habit only to wager at odds that provide, say 5% value (check out our betting guide about calculating value).

There’s only one way you can beat the collective wisdom of the crowd, and that’s being one step ahead of the hundreds of thousands of bettors out there. Something you can do different to everybody else is to pay a lot of attention to the team news that could potentially be undervalued or on the contrary, given too much significance. You can do that by browsing popular Premier League betting tips, social media, the media etc.

You might also want to read more about:

Your football prediction model should include something more than just numbers. In other words, if you can identify the hype, use it to your advantage. Anything that’s not measurable will give you an edge. This doesn’t mean you should neglect the betting stats analysis, just remember not to stop there.

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Apply a safe & stable staking method

First things first: Only bet what you can afford to lose, don’t increase your stakes unless you strategy demands it and never chase losses.

Second, let go of the need to make things interesting, forget about the adrenaline rush and bet no more than 2% of your initial bank on each selection.

“Whaaaaaat?” I hear you inquiring.

It doesn’t matter if your bankroll is only £50. Applying a sound money management strategy is the least you can do to give yourself a chance to make a buck at the end of the season. Employing this staking method is incredibly easy, yet many weekend punters ignore it, whereas most pros use it.

The reason why this simple staking plan it is so good is because it:

  • cancels bad luck in the long run
  • protects your betting bankroll
  • will help you make the most of the value you have identified.

No matter how good of a tipster you are, things will go pear shapes from time to time. Basically, you are eliminating an aspect most punters have to worry about by employing a fixed stake. And the great news is that this will enable you to better focus on other aspects of your betting analysis.

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Follow Premier League clubs, players and communities

Knowing the Premier League winners of the last two decades won’t help you better understand football betting markets. However, it is important that you study everything there is to know about the EPL. Why? Because correctly evaluating the pros and cons you have at your disposal is what separates the average bettors from the seasoned punters.

You don’t have the cutting edge analysis tools bookies use to establish odds, but you do have access to their final product: the betting odds. What you can do is to try and incorporate personal information that comes from other people.

Start by reading the online newspapers, check out what the media punters say, find out what other sports bettors think, follow the clubs, players, fan clubs and other communities on social media and try to interpret data coming from various relevant viewpoints.

You want to listen and weigh both the pros and the cons. Don’t look only for the opinions that are lying in the same boat, otherwise you’d just cheat yourself into believing a random guess. Take notes of over-hyped arguments, but don’t fall for the public opinion. Always do your own due diligence.

And remember that despite the comprehensive media coverage, the social media and the global interest for the competition, it is not easy to make money betting on the Premier League. A half an hour of analysis won’t be enough. You have to work a few days in advanced to be able to generate accurate predictions and even if you do, there’s no guarantee that you will succeed.

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Find the best price for your selections

The vigorish, juice or cute of the take makes it impossible for a punter to profit in the long run unless he has accounts with multiple bookies. The payout that is generally available won’t be good enough to enable long term success unless the punter happens to be involved in match fixing.

Unless you’ve got an efficient Premier League betting model that enables you to accurately determine the true probability, you can always base your decisions on the liquidity available on Betfair (or any other betting exchange). The Premier League is the most bet football league in Europe, so the odds on Matchbook are the result of plenty sophisticated pricing models that are shaping the market in their attempt to grab valuable prices.

As a general rule of thumb, back at the higher odds with the bookies than it is available at the betting exchanges and you should be on the right side. Now, that’s an ideal scenario, but typically what you should look for is to take the top price on your chosen selection. You can use resources such as OddsPortal.com in order to do that efficiently.

 

Premier League Betting Offers 18/19

There are tons of betting offers for all customers, existing and new, with regards to Premier League betting. But betting on the English top tier isn’t beneficial to the punter only because of free bets and betting offers for new accounts. Premier League games come with the most betting markets, with some betting sites offering as many as +250 betting lines. On top of that, there are many online bookmakers that run the lowest margins for the EPL markets, resulting in high payouts for the punters, up to an incredible 98% on the main 1X2 moneyline bets.

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Premier League Betting Prices

We’ve added some betting odds for the outright betting fans: Title Odds, PFA Player of the Year Odds, Premier League Top Scorer Odds & Relegation Odds for the 2018/2019 season. However, the betting odds will be continuously adjusted by the online bookmakers according to the results, transfers, staff changes and other team news. Note that our tipsters add Premier League Betting Predictions from time to time in our Free Betting Tips section.

 

Premiership Winner Odds 2018/2019

  1. Man City @ 1.73 – Wager at the best odds with Betway
  2. Liverpool @ 2.38 – Back the highest odds at Betfred
  3. Man Utd @ 251 – Place your bet with Bet365
  4. Chelsea @ 1001 – Register and start playing at Sportingbet
  5. Tottenham @ 26 – Grab the best odds at Bet365
  6. Arsenal @ 1001 – Bet now with 888sports

Odds correct as of 09:14 15/02/2019

 

Premier League Player Of The Year Odds

  1. Virgil van Dijk @ 2.37 – bet365.com
  2. Sergio Aguero @ 5.00 – williamhill.com
  3. Mohamed Salah @ 7.00 – 888.com
  4. Raheem Sterling @ 17 – betfred.com
  5. David Silva @ 17 – betfred.com

Odds correct as of 09:14 15/02/2019

 

Premier League Top Scorer Odds 2018/2019

  1. ⚽ Sergio Aguero @ 2.38 – betvictor.com
  2. ⚽ Mohamed Salah @ 2.50 – bet365.com
  3. ⚽ Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang @ 6.5 –sportingbet.com
  4. ⚽ Harry Kane @ 15 – williamhill.com

Odds correct as of 09:14 15/02/2019

 

English Premiership Relegation Odds 18/19

  1. Huddersfield @ 1.01 – betfred.com
  2. Fulham @ 1.11 – bet365.com
  3. Cardiff @ 1.91 – betfred.com
  4. Burnley @ 4.50 – betfred.com
  5. Southampton @ 5.50 – betvictor.com

Odds correct as of 09:14 15/02/2019

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