Best Betting Exchange Strategies That Work on Betfair
Explore some of the simplest yet most efficient betting exchange strategies and a few low-risk trading techniques that should enable you to build your bank.
Anybody can learn how to trade on Betfair, and those who have a clear head and a solid plan could go far. Although it may seem daunting when you are a complete beginner, things should start to click once you’ve grasped the betting exchange basics.
Successful Betfair traders use a combination of stats and intuition to anticipate where odds are likely to move in a certain direction. But keeping discipline is crucial. Also, having access to professional Betfair trading strategies & software can’t hurt.
Making a living on Betfair is not just an exciting thought, but something achievable. Furthermore, the pros have shared some secrets of the trade: check out what these 6 full-time Betfair traders told Caan Berry. You’ll learn that there are lots of different approaches to Betfair's Exchange markets.
So let’s have a look at some Betfair strategies that work.
Quickly navigate to your desired topic:
- Under 2.5 Goals Scalping
- Correct Score Swing Trading
- Lay the Draw Trade
- Over 1.5 Goals In-Play Trade
- Lay 0-1 Correct Score Betting System
- Imperfect Hedging in Horse Racing
- Lay the Server in WTA Tennis Matches
Under 2.5 Goals Scalping
This football trading system is an excellent introduction to scalping, a method consisting in seeking profits from small movements in markets:
Seek a live football match where the price for the Under 2.5 goals stands between 1.70 and 1.90 and back it. Then, immediately place a lay bet on odds lower with .05 and wait for it to get matched – it shouldn’t take more than 5 minutes.
A quick hedging example would look like this:
- Bet #1 – Back Under 2.5 @ 1.75 with £58
- Bet #2 – Lay Under 2.5 @ 1.70 with £42
Either way it goes, as long as you’re on the 2% commission plan, you’ll end up with around 1% profit in a matter of minutes.
But let’s not forget that things can occasionally go wrong: If a goal happens to be scored before your lay price is matched, you have the option to cash out to cut losses or wait a bit more before you can (hopefully) break even.
Correct Score Swing Trading
This is one of the simplest and most efficient low-risk football trading strategies:
First, you have to find a fixture where the probability of both teams scoring is high, as you will initially back the final score 2-1 or 1-2, depending on where the favourite is playing: home or away.
You’ll wait for the first goal to be scored and then lay the same score you backed to green-up. That's why they call it swing trading because it requires a greater movement of the odds.
Of course, if the 1st goal is scored before 15 minutes, you can wait for the second goal to go in (if you’re watching the match and you realise the second goal is on its way) to get more out of your trade, but that’s entirely up to you.
The value of the trade on Betfair will depend on many factors, such as the initial odds, which team scored first, the time interval when the first goal goes in, et cetera.
There are many correct score trading strategies out there, but we can assume that this one is one of the easiest to employ, as it doesn’t require a lot of effort in terms of pre-match analysis or in-play trading skills.
Lay the Draw Trade
This is another popular swing trading strategy:
Pick a fixture where both squads should be priced near or above even odds (+1.90, decimals). Stick to this rule no matter what, as the odds would move in the wrong direction if the underdog breaks the deadlock in a match where there’s a heavy favourite.
Follow the match after kick-off and wait 15 to 20 minutes before laying the draw – unless a goal has been scored, in which case you will skip the event. Afterwards, wait for the first goal to go in and back the draw at the new price.
There's also the option to look for matches where no goal is scored in the 1st half. Then, you can simply lay the draw at half-time, eventually cashing-out after the first goal is scored. This approach is a bit riskier, since the teams have less time to score, yet it can also be more lucrative because when a goal is scored, the price for the draw will go up by quite a bit.
But don’t celebrate for too long: hedge your initial bet immediately after the goal is scored, and don’t get greedy thinking about waiting for the odds to go up even further, because such risks can put a dent in your bankroll, as well as in your confidence. Feel free to use Betfair trading software to automate this process.
Remember, you should be able to get a profitable trade as long as you avoid 0-0 bore draws and matches where no goal is scored in the first 80 minutes.
Over 1.5 Goals In-Play Trade
This trading method depends a great deal on the preparation; Skip this one if you're not the patient type:
Look for games that are very likely to end up with 3 or more goals and then wait till the first 40 minutes have gone past. If the scoreline is 0-0, back the Over 1.5 Goals bet at odds around 2.00, otherwise skip the fixture.
Afterwards, you will trade it after the first goal is scored.
The price will vary in accordance with the minute when the 1st goal is scored, the pace of the game and the number of chances created by both sides. If the ball finds the bet before the 75th minute, the odds should drop to the 1.40-1.60 range.
If things go your way, you should end up with a decent profit. But even if they don’t, you may still be able to generate a tiny profit or at least break even if the goal is scored in the last 10 minutes of the game, which is very likely to happen if you picked the right type of fixture.
Keep in mind that you would only require a goal to be scored between the 41st and 80th minute to secure a profit using this Betfair football trading strategy, so goal time analysis stats like the average 1st goal time or goals per 15-minute segment are well worth pursuing.
Lay 0-1 Correct Score Betting System
Although this is not a trading strategy on Betfair, it’s one of those betting systems that can only be applied on exchange markets:
Unlike the many complex betting systems based on the correct score markets, this is one of the simplest low-risk football strategies you'll ever come across. It basically involves laying the 0-1 Correct Score in matches where there is a strong favourite playing at home. You’ll only lose if the underdog wins 0-1. Otherwise, you should be laughing.
You’d have to pay close attention to these factors when selecting football matches for this strategy:
- Odds for the Over 1.5 bet shouldn’t be higher than 1.40
- The favourite didn't have any trouble finding the net in the past 5 matches
- The underdog shouldn’t have a watertight defence.
You should also check out the league averages regarding correct scores to decide where the minimum potential profit per match could stand.
For example, when the 2019/2020 Premier League season was suspended due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the 0-1 score was registered in just 16 of all 246 clashes. That’s 5.6%. And let’s not ignore the fact that the respective percentage includes the matches where the favourite was playing away. So, in this scenario, you should be safe as long as your potential returns are higher than 6% per game.
Alright, enough with the football betting strategies. Let’s move on.
Imperfect Hedging in Horse Racing
This system is similar to the many Betfair pre-match trading strategies, but it involves risk, so it is essentially a punting betting strategy. You can use it in many other sports, but let’s focus on horse racing betting for now:
A three-year study on all the horse races on Betfair revealed that if you’d back the 5 horses that have the highest probabilities of winning the race using a dutching calculator, you’d have a 94.34% hit rate. We’re talking about backing the top 5 favourite horses (out of 10). Those stats tell us that, in the long run, you’ll have the edge over the books as long as your average profits are greater than 6% per event.
Let me show you an example.
With a 2% commission and the subsequent 5 bets placed, you’d get an 8% profit if either of the top 5 favourites would win the race:
- Horse #1 @ 3.40
- Horse #2 @ 3.90
- Horse #3 @ 7.2
- Horse #4 @ 8.4
- Horse #5 @ 9.6
So, as long as you’re using the flat staking system, and you don’t lose more than one out of 13 bets, you should be in the green.
Remember, if you do the math right, the odds may be in your favour.
Lay the Server in WTA Tennis Matches
This is one of the most widespread tennis trading strategies. It is believed that many professional Betfair traders use it. What’s it all about: You have to z, but not randomly.
Be on the lookout for:
- weak servers and good returners in women’s games, because the average win/loss ratio of the server is close to 50%
- matches played on clay, as breaks of serve happen more frequently on slower surfaces
- fixtures with where players have similar strength, to get balanced odds.
Scanning the WTA Return Stats can be a good point of departure as far as finding productive encounters goes. But the money management will determine where you end up in the green or not.
A successful trader would typically lay the player before they are about to serve and back them at the end of their service game. You exit trade could be made to either take the available profit or minimise losses.
Some sports traders will use a progressive staking plan for individual matches, at the same time complying with a maximum loss limit. Ultimately, this is a matter of finding what works for you.
Even though you could theoretically use this betting strategy with many online bookmakers (by backing the player who’s not serving), it gets done via Belfair’s tennis markets, as the odds are generally greater and the platform facilitates tennis trading. Plus, there’s no need to worry about limitations.
That’s about it.
We’ve shown you a few worthwhile Betfair systems that work, but it’s entirely up to you to find or develop a profitable strategy. Bear in mind that trading is not matched betting. Thus, all trading strategies entail a risk, so there are no guarantees that you’ll be able to stay in the green.
It’s a good idea to use low (or virtual) stakes while testing a new trading strategy on Betfair. You will encounter various situations while experimenting, and those experiences will teach you how to devise a professional Betfair trading system.
Sports trading on Betfair may not be as fun as placing mug bets with online bookmakers, but if done right, it can definitely be more lucrative in the long run.
After you get cracking, when you’ll devise a Betfair betting system that works, feel free to share it with us. We’ll happily add any profitable betting exchange strategies you’ll come up with, so other punters can make use of it.